U.S. all-cotton 2015-16 export commitments reached 95% of the new USDA projection and shipments amounted to 71%. Improved rain chances forecast for the Texas High Plains.
Cotton futures finished a bit mixed Thursday, with spot July posting a small closing gain to snap a three-session losing streak.
July settled up 13 points to 60.73 cents, closing in the lower half of an 82-point range from up 77 points at 61.37 cents to down five points at 60.55 cents. It touched the low, matching the prior-day low, about 40 minutes before the close and up-ticked to a final print at 60.92 cents.
December settled off a point at 60.57 cents, in the lower third of its 96-point range from up 16 points at 61.27 to down 80 points at 60.31 cents. It dipped to a new intraday low for the move, matching its low of April 19, and ticked last at 60.73.
Volume slowed to an estimated 28,145 lots from 31,981 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 13,263 lots or 41% and EFP 33 lots. Options volume totaled 3,488 calls and 2,337 puts.
Net U.S. all-cotton export sales of 108,700 running bales for shipment this season during the week ended May 5, up from 72,700 RB the previous week, brought 2015-16 commitments to 8.291 million RB.
Commitments narrowed the gap behind year-ago bookings by 42,000 RB to 2.335 million RB or to 21% and were 95% of the downwardly revised USDA estimate. A year ago, commitments were 97% of final 2014-15 shipments.
All-cotton shipments of 180,700 RB, down from 290,500 the prior week, boosted the total for the season to 6.222 million RB, which amounted to 71% of the USDA forecast, compared with 73% of final exports a year ago.
The lag of shipments behind year-ago exports widened 71,000 RB to 1.723 million RB or to 22%. Shipments now need to average roughly 209,000 RB a week to reach the USDA forecast, which is 20% below year-ago exports and would be the lowest since 2000-01.
Net all-cotton sales for shipment next season of 5,400 RB, down from 24,800 RB the week before, nudged 2016-17 commitments to 1.886 million RB, compared with forward bookings a year ago of 1.177 million RB.
New-crop commitments were nearly 12% of USDAΆs May projection of 2016-17 exports. A year ago, forward bookings totaled about 13% of the current 2015-16 export estimate.
On the weather scene, a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms is forecast to improve to 30% Friday night in the Texas High Plains cotton area, rising to 60% Saturday and lingering at 40% into Sunday. A few severe thunderstorms are possible, forecasters say.
While subsoil moisture is rated above average across the semi-arid region, topsoil moisture is short in much of the dryland area. Rain could give planting progress a significant boost and benefit irrigated cotton.
The USDAΆs weekly crop progress and condition report showed topsoil moisture as short to very short in 59% of the southern district of the High Plains and 43% in the northern area as of May 8.
Futures open interest increased 774 lots Wednesday to 187,117, with JulyΆs down 1,161 lots to 100,271 and DecemberΆs up 1,825 lots to 70,354. Cert stocks increased 1,496 bales to 73,394. There were 1,497 newly certified bales and one bale decertified. Awaiting review were 6,725 bales at Memphis.
