Insights

• ICE cotton futures closed nearly flat as weaker US export sales offset support from a softer dollar following Fed's rate cut.
• March 2026 settled lower, while mixed moves were seen across other months.
• USDA data showed sharply lower net sales for the week ending November 13, highlighting weak demand.
• Speculators expanded net short positions, keeping market sentiment cautious.

ICE cotton futures closed almost flat yesterday, as weaker US cotton export sales offset support from a softer US dollar. After the Federal Reserve’s rate cut, the dollar eased to a near two-month low, which could enhance US cotton export competitiveness. However, the latest USDA weekly sales report was weak.

The most active March 2026 cotton futures settled at 63.97 cents per pound, down 0.15 cents. Contracts from March 2026 to March 2027 fell by 1–15 points, while all other months rose by 5–12 points.

Total trading volume was 31,460 contracts, higher than the previous day’s 30,419. The March contract traded within a 46-point intraday range (6,389–6,435) and a 98-point weekly range (6,355–6,453).

The USDA weekly export report showed lower demand, neutralising the positive impact of the weaker dollar on cotton prices. Market analysts said harvest pressure is now low as the season moves into the latter phase, but overall demand remains weak.

USDA export net sales for the week ending November 13, 2025, were 187,600 running bales for 2025–26, sharply lower than the previous week’s 292,100 running bales. Lower interest rates typically support US economic growth by boosting consumer spending, which can help strengthen textile and cotton demand.

ICE speculators increased their net short position by 4,773 contracts, taking total net shorts to 75,660 contracts for the week ending November 10, 2025.

In grains, US wheat futures rebounded on Thursday as the weaker dollar supported prices following a one per cent decline caused by the USDA’s upward revision to global output estimates.

This morning (Indian Standard Time), ICE March 2026 cotton traded at 63.91 cents per pound (down 0.06 cent), cash cotton at 61.72 cents (down 0.15 cent), May 2026 at 65.04 cents (down 0.01 cent), July 2026 at 66.07 cents (unchanged), October 2026 at 66.66 cents (down 0.02 cent) and December 2026 at 67.59 cents (down 0.02 cent). Several contracts remained at their previous closing levels, with no trades recorded so far today.