For U.S. ending stocks, private estimates averaged 4.1 million bales down 100,000 from March due to ideas USDA might hike its export forecast from last month. Estimates ranged from 3.9 million to 4.3 million bales. But USDA left ending stocks unchanged at 4.2 million bales; a bit negative. They did hike estimated exports by 250,000 bales, to 13 million, but they also raised the average yield estimate for 2012 to 880 lbs. per acre from the previous “final” yield o 866 lbs., thanks to the Mar. 25th Cotton Ginnings report which indicated a crop about 280,000 bales higher than thought.

The 300,000 bale difference was put into residual usage, thus leaving ending stocks unchanged at 4.2 million bales. As for USDAΆs estimated range for average farm price, it was hiked half a cent at both ends, to 70.5-73.5 from 70.0-73.0 in the March WASDE.

The global balance sheet revisions were only slightly negative, in that USDA raised global beginning stocks by 1.2 million bales while trimming global production just 170,000 bales and boosting global use just 330,000 for a net hike in global ending stocks of 710,000 bales instead of a slight net decline most expected. It was enough to pare pre-report gains in futures, but theyΆre still on the plus side.

Once again, however, most of the rise in stocks was in China and traders are still willing to discount such increases on “faith” that China will continue to hold those stocks in reserve so “they donΆt really count.” IΆm skeptical of that, of course, because itΆs putting a lot of faith in Beijing not to change their mind down the road. Nonetheless, if you donΆt count the changes in the Chinese balance sheet, the ending stocks for the “rest of the world” actually declined slightly in todayΆs report.Catch-up advice still stands.