U.S. 2015-16 export commitments reached nearly 102% of the USDA projection and shipments totaled 82%. Only modest adjustments appear generally expected in U.S. 2016-17 supply-demand estimates.
Cotton futures traded in the red throughout the session and finished at four-day low settlements Thursday amid a rally in the U.S. dollar index and positioning ahead of monthly supply-demand estimates.
Spot July closed down 92 points to 64.96 cents, slightly below the midpoint of its 121-point range from down 11 points at 65.67 cents to down 132 points at 64.46 cents. It finished below lows of the prior two days.
December settled down 66 points at 65.30 cents, around the middle of its 104-point range from down 12 points at 65.84 to down 116 points at 76.80 cents.
Volume dipped to an estimated 40,406 lots from 62,787 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 30,629 lots or 49%, EFP 10,692 lots and EFS 695 lots. Options volume totaled 1,779 calls and 2,753 puts.
The market established the trading ranges for the session prior to release of the U.S. weekly export sales-shipments report, which showed upland current-crop sales around the middle of the range of expectations.
All-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 116,900 running bales during the week ended June 2, down from 134,500 RB the previous week, boosted 2015-16 commitments to 8.887 million RB.
The margin by which commitments trailed year-ago bookings narrowed by 63,000 RB to 2.111 million RB, the sixth consecutive week in which the margin has tightened.
Commitments — outstanding sales of 1.618 million RB plus shipments — were 19% behind year-ago export bookings. The USDA last month estimated 2015-16 exports at 20% below 2014-15 shipments.
Cumulative sales were nearly 102% of the USDA export projection, compared with nearly 101% of final 2014-15 shipments at the corresponding point last season.
All-cotton shipments of 214,800 RB, down from 251,400 RB the week before, brought the total for the season to 7.186 million RB, widening the gap behind year-ago exports to 2.109 million RB.
Exports lagged about 23% behind shipments a year ago and were 82% of the USDA estimate, compared with 85% of final shipments last year. However, weekly shipments have been running ahead of the pace required to make the forecast, now an average of roughly 193,000 RB a week.
All-cotton sales for shipment next season of 130,500 RB, up from 76,100 the prior week, hiked the weekly total for both crop years to 247,400 RB and raised 2016-17 commitments to 1.569 million RB.
Commitments for 2016-17 were 161,000 RB ahead of forward bookings a year ago and were 15% of the USDA projection. A year ago, forward bookings were 16% of the current export estimate for 2015-16.
Meanwhile, only modest adjustments appear generally expected in U.S. 2016-17 supply-demand estimates in USDAΆs updated report scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT on Friday.
The USDA previously has seemed reluctant to make significant revisions in new-crop estimates in the June report ahead of the planted acreage data at the end of the month. The March prospective plantings data will be used in the June report.
Globally, a cut in 2016-17 production, expected to fall shy of mill use for a second year, wouldnΆt be surprising. The USDA last month projected world production shortfalls of 6.42 million bales for 2016-17 and 9.48 million bales for 2015-16.
Futures open interest expanded 2,858 lots Wednesday to 214,251, with JulyΆs down 5,275 lots to 69,890 and DecemberΆs up 6,603 lots to 119,659. Cert stocks grew 3,179 bales to 119,264.
