DTN Cotton Close: Strongly Ahead on Late Spurt

DTN Cotton Close: Strongly Ahead on Late Spurt

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Mills added a combined 137 lots to their unpriced May-July on-call position. U.S. Far East premium narrowed. Outstanding 2016-crop upland loans declined to 4.395 million RB.

Cotton futures spurted to triple-digit old-crop gains in the late going Friday, finishing with the sixth weekly gain in the last seven weeks in benchmark May.

May settled up 121 points for the session and 142 points for the week at 77.99 cents, completing an inside day while posting the highest close since its contract high settlement at 78.21 cents on Feb. 13. It closed near the high of the sessionΆs 148-point range from down 12 points at 76.66 cents to up 136 points at 78.14 cents.

Maturing March settled up 159 points at 77.28 cents. July gained 97 points to close 78.83 cents and December rose 19 points to finish at 74.94 cents. For the week, March was up 186 points, July 133 points and December 96 points.

U.S. dollar index futures traded down 0.7% just after the cotton close and U.S. equities were about steady. May corn closed up 0.3%, May soybeans little changed, May Chicago wheat up 0.1% and May Kansas City wheat up 0.3%.

Cotton volume slowed to an estimated 23,023 lots from 55,613 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 38%, EFS 250 lots and EFP 49 lots. Options volume fell to 1,721 lots — seven calls and 1,650 puts — from 11,603 lots.

Traders and analysts have continued to monitor the weekly on-call data reported by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission after the close on Thursdays, weighing the big unpriced mill position against heavy spec-fund net longs.

Mills nudged their unpriced on-call position up a combined 137 lots to 80,420 lots in May and July last week, while producers increased theirs by 793 lots to 7,989 lots, the latest CFTC data showed.

The net call difference dipped 391 lots to 83,854 lots, 34.3% of the May-July open interest. Potentially, mills had just over 10 lots to buy for each one that producers had to sell. The ratio across the board was 3.7:1.

On the competitive pricing front, the average of the five lowest-quoted world growths for the Far East advanced 101 points to 84.02 cents during the week ended Thursday, according to USDA calculations, while the lowest-priced U.S. growth landed there gained 85 points to 84.15 cents.

The U.S. premium thus narrowed 16 points to 0.13 cent. The adjusted world price, reflecting transportation and quality differentials, for the program week ahead is figured at 66.59 cents, leaving of course a zero marketing loan gain.

The fine count adjustment for qualities better than 31-3-35 is calculated at 19 points. This is based on differences between premiums in U.S. and international markets.

Meanwhile, with supplies left in the hands of producers continuing to dwindle, U.S. 2016-crop upland loans outstanding declined 210,510 running bales to 4.395 million RB during the week ended Monday, according to the latest USDA figures.

Repayments were made on 305,476 RB and entries were 94,966 RB. Outstanding were 4.021 million RB of Form G loans issued to marketing cooperatives or loan servicing agents and 373,300 RB of Form A loans issued to individual growers.

An undetermined portion of the cotton under loan is committed and awaiting withdrawal to meet specified shipping deadlines.

Futures open interest grew 1,527 lots Thursday to 272,996, with MarchΆs down three lots to 78, MayΆs down 2,328 lots to 161,708, JulyΆs up 667 lots to 52,015 and DecemberΆs up 3,112 lots to 52,132. Certified stocks declined 434 bales to 325,156.

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